Malaria and Climate Variability: Exploring Variations in Rainfall, Temperature and Mortality on Mt. Elgon, Kenya (2011 To 2021)

Abstract

Background: Malaria is a preventable and treatable disease that is transmitted to humans through the bites of infected mosquitoes. Understanding the trends in the factors that contribute to malaria transmission is essential for the timely development of effective prevention and control strategies. Objective: This study analyzed the trends relationships between rainfall, temperature, and confirmed cases of malaria in Mt. Elgon Sub-County over the past decade (2011-2021). Results: The results showed a negative correlation between rainfall and confirmed malaria cases, with a correlation coefficient of -0.36. An increase in rainfall was associated with a decrease in confirmed malaria cases. Additionally, there was a moderate to strong positive correlation between average temperature and confirmed malaria cases, with a correlation coefficient of 0.16. An increase in temperature was associated with an increase in confirmed malaria cases. Conclusion: These results highlight the importance of understanding the role of environmental factors in the transmission of malaria and the potential impact of climate change on the disease transmission. Reduction in mean rainfall and an increase in mean temperature predicts’ increased malaria and these can be used to mobilize resources to prevent and manage the disease. Further research is needed to better understand the complex relationships between these variables and to identify effective strategies for preventing and controlling malaria