Abstract:
Limited data is available on the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID‐19), critical illness rate, and in‐hospital mortality in the African setting. This study investigates determinants of critical illness and in‐hospital mortality
among COVID‐19 patients in Kenya. We conducted a retrospective cohort study at Kenyatta National
Hospital (KNH) in Kenya. Multivariate logistic regression and Cox proportional hazard regression were
employed to determine predictor factors for intensive care unit (ICU) admission and in‐hospital mortality,
respectively. In addition, the Kaplan‐Meier model was used to compare the survival times using log‐rank tests.
As a result, 346 (19.3%) COVID‐19 patients were admitted to ICU, and 271 (15.1%) died. The majority of those
admitted to the hospital were male, 1,137 (63.4%) and asymptomatic, 1,357 (75.7%). The most prevalent clinical features were shortness of breath, fever, and dry cough. In addition, older age, male, health status, patient
on oxygen (O2), oxygen saturation levels (SPO2), headache, dry cough, comorbidities, obesity, cardiovascular
diseases (CVDs), diabetes, chronic lung disease (CLD), and malignancy/cancer can predicate the risk of ICU
admission, with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC‐ROC) of 0.90 (95% confidence
interval [CI]: 0.88–0.92). Survival analysis indicated 271 (15.1%) patients died and identified older age, male,
headache, shortness of breath, health status, patient on oxygen, SPO2, headache, comorbidity, CVDs, diabetes,
CLD, malignancy/cancer, and smoking as risk factors for mortality (AUC‐ROC: 0.90, 95% CI: 0.89–0.91). This
is the first attempt to explore predictors for ICU admission and hospital mortality among COVID‐19 patients in
Kenya.
